Oil and Revolutionary Governments: Fuel for International Conflict — Jeff D. Colgan, 2010

This article argues that oil wealth alone does not make states aggressive internationally.

Instead, revolutionary governments combined with oil revenues create especially conflict-prone “petro-revolutionary” states by increasing leader autonomy, military capacity, and willingness to pursue risky foreign policy aggression.

1. Petrostates Are More Likely to Launch International Conflicts

2. The “Wars Over Oil” Explanation Is Incomplete

3. Revolutionary Governments Are the Key Driver of Aggressive Petrostate Behavior

4. Revolutions Select Aggressive Leaders and Weaken Domestic Constraints

5. Oil Wealth Increases Leader Autonomy and Military Power

6. Oil Also Creates Strong Incentives for Peace and Stability

7. Petro-Revolutionary States Are Statistically Much More Conflict-Prone

⭐ Star Facts

• Petrostates engaged in militarized interstate disputes at rates more than 50% higher than nonpetrostates from 1945–2001.
• Oil-rich states launched aggressive military disputes at rates 94% higher than nonpetrostates, suggesting the oil-conflict relationship was driven more by aggression than victimization.
• Petro-revolutionary governments were statistically more than three times as likely to initiate aggressive military disputes as comparable non-oil states.
• The study argues that the idea of countries mainly fighting to seize oil is incomplete; many oil conflicts are driven by oil-rich states themselves pursuing aggressive foreign policies.
• Revolutionary leaders are often more willing to use force because revolutions select for leaders comfortable with risk, violence, and radical political change.
• Oil revenues give leaders unusual political autonomy because governments can fund themselves through oil exports rather than relying heavily on public taxation or approval.
• Saddam Hussein remained in power despite disastrous wars with Iran and Kuwait, which Colgan cites as evidence that oil wealth can shield leaders from domestic punishment for failed foreign policy.
• Muammar Qadhafi’s Libya supported insurgencies and militant groups in at least 30 countries worldwide, illustrating how oil wealth can finance international activism and aggression.
• Oil also creates incentives for peace because exporters depend heavily on stable trade relationships and uninterrupted access to global markets.