The Long-Run Impacts of Banning Affirmative Action in U.S. Higher Education - Francisca M. Antman, Brian Duncan, Michael F. Lovenheim (2024)

This paper examines the long-term effects of banning affirmative action in U.S. college admissions, using data from multiple states that implemented bans prior to the 2023 Supreme Court decision. The authors apply a difference-in-differences framework to compare educational and labor market outcomes across racial groups before and after these bans.

They find that eliminating affirmative action increases racial inequality, particularly harming underrepresented minority women, who experience declines in college completion, earnings, and employment. Effects for men are more mixed, with some evidence of slight improvements for Black men, possibly due to reduced “mismatch” effects.

Overall, the study shows that removing affirmative action tends to widen disparities, suggesting that such policies play a significant role in shaping long-term socioeconomic outcomes.

1. Affirmative action bans increase inequality

2. The impact is highly gendered

3. College quality vs. “mismatch” is the core tradeoff

4. Bans reduce access to selective institutions

5. Effects vary across states (heterogeneity)

6. No strong evidence that bans improve “merit outcomes”

7. Labor market effects are central

8. The 2023 Supreme Court decision may reproduce these effects

⭐ Star Facts

• Hispanic women’s college completion drops ~4 percentage points after affirmative action bans
• Hispanic women’s earnings fall by ~8.1% — one of the largest effects in the study
• Black women’s earnings decline ~4.2% (less consistent but still negative trend)
• White women’s earnings increase ~3.3%, widening racial income gaps
• Hispanic women’s employment drops ~3.6 percentage points
• Little to no effect on men’s education outcomes overall
• Some evidence Black men’s earnings/employment may increase slightly, consistent with “mismatch” theory (but not conclusive)