Los Angeles’ Housing Crisis and Local Planning Responses: An Evaluation of Inclusionary Zoning and the Transit-Oriented Communities Plan as Policy Solutions in Los Angeles — Linna Zhu, Evgeny Burinskiy, Jorge De la Roca, Richard K. Green, Marlon G. Boarnet, 2021

This paper evaluates Los Angeles’ housing crisis and the effectiveness of inclusionary zoning through the Transit-Oriented Communities program, showing how density incentives, affordability requirements, and developer behavior interact to shape housing supply and policy outcomes.

0. What the TOC Program Is and What It Does

1. The housing crisis is driven by structural supply shortages

2. Existing government programs are insufficient

3. Inclusionary zoning works by leveraging private development

4. The TOC program is more effective than previous approaches

5. TOC is helpful but not sufficient

⭐ Star Facts

• Los Angeles ranks among the worst in housing affordability, with renters at the 25th percentile spending about 53% of income on rent.
• A low-income renter (~$24,000/year) can afford $600/month, but there are only 151,000 units at that price for 462,000 households → 311,000 unit shortage.
• At the median level, LA is still short about 255,000 affordable units, bringing the total shortage to ~566,000 units.
• LA has one of the lowest vacancy rates in the U.S., below the ~5% “natural rate” needed to stabilize rents.
• The city would need to build about 56,000 additional multifamily units just to prevent rents from rising further.
• Housing construction is lagging: LA builds 1 unit per 3.2 jobs, compared to the national rate of 1 unit per 1.8 jobs.
• Federal housing programs only serve about 30% of eligible households, leaving the majority without assistance.
• California may have ~720,000 households unable to find affordable housing through either subsidies or the market.
• TOC projects have produced nearly as many permits and affordable units as older programs, despite existing for less time.
• About 45% of TOC projects avoid the full approval process, and those that don’t still get approved in about half the time of traditional projects.
• Developers often achieve equal or higher returns under TOC due to increased density and lower land cost per unit.