Law-Abiding Immigrants: The Incarceration Gap Between Immigrants and the US-Born, 1870–2020 — Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Elisa Jácome, Santiago Pérez, Juan David Torres (2023, revised 2024)

This study analyzes 150 years of U.S. data, finding immigrants consistently have lower incarceration rates than native-born citizens. The gap has widened since 1960, challenging common narratives about immigration and crime while pointing to deeper economic and social differences shaping outcomes.

0. What the paper does

1. Immigrants are consistently less likely to be incarcerated

2. The gap is real — not explained by simple factors

3. The gap reflects a broader structural divergence after 1960

4. The gap is likely driven by structural and selection effects

⭐ Star Facts

• Immigrants have had lower incarceration rates than U.S.-born men for 150 years (1870–2020).
• Today, immigrants are about 50–60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born individuals.
• Even compared only to U.S.-born white men, immigrants are still about 30% less likely to be incarcerated.
• The incarceration gap widens sharply after 1960, driven by rising incarceration among the U.S.-born—not immigrants.
• The pattern holds across all major immigrant groups (Europe, Asia, Latin America, etc.), not just one population.
• Controlling for factors like age, race, education, and location does NOT explain the gap—it often makes it larger.
• Immigrants today are, on average, less educated than the U.S.-born, yet still have lower incarceration rates—contradicting typical risk expectations.
• The gap exists even among immigrants who are U.S. citizens, meaning it cannot be explained by deportation.
• The divergence began decades before mass deportations increased (pre-1990s–2000s).
• Among low-educated men, immigrants are now about 30 percentage points more likely to be employed than U.S.-born counterparts.
• Immigrants are also more likely to be married, living with children, and in better health than comparable U.S.-born men.

🧠 Conclusion