After Oslo: Rethinking the Two-State Solution - Khaled Elgindy - Brookings Institution, June 2018

This policy brief argues that the traditional two-state solution is becoming increasingly unworkable due to Israeli settlement growth, the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, and collapsing political support on all sides. ⭐

The author explores alternatives including confederation and binationalism.

1. The Oslo Peace Process Is Effectively Dead

2. The Traditional Two-State Solution Is Becoming Unworkable

3. The Palestinian Authority Is Weakening

4. Political Support for Two States Is Collapsing

5. A One-State Reality Already Exists

6. Permanent Occupation Is Not a Sustainable Solution

7. A Single Democratic State Is Attractive but Politically Unrealistic

8. Confederation May Offer a New Way Forward

⭐ Star Facts

1. The Settler Population More Than Doubled During the Oslo Era

When the Oslo Accords were signed in 1993, there were roughly 250,000 Israeli settlers beyond the Green Line. By 2018, there were more than 640,000, despite decades of negotiations intended to achieve a two-state solution.

2. A Slim Majority of Palestinians Opposed Two States

The paper cites polling showing that by 2018, a slim majority of Palestinians opposed a two-state solution, reflecting growing disillusionment with the Oslo process.

3. The Palestinian Authority Faced an $800 Million Budget Deficit

The PA, often viewed as the embryo of a future Palestinian state, was facing a budget deficit of roughly $800 million, while international aid had fallen to about half of its 2013 level.

4. The Author Says One-State Rule Already Exists

Rather than viewing the conflict as a choice between one state and two states, the author argues that one state already controls the territory between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, but with different groups possessing different rights and legal statuses.